学到了pmi是什么意思(论文的doi\/pmid是什么意思)

Report On Business® Roundup November Services PMI®商业报告®11月服务业综合PMI®Article by Dan Zeiger, from ISM website

Last month, this space discussed how the Services ISM® Report On Business® impacts overall economic sentiment, since the data covers the sector that employs most Americans and makes up an overwhelming share of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

上个月，本专栏讨论了服务业ISM®商业报告®如何影响整体经济情绪，因为该数据涵盖了雇佣大多数美国人的行业，并占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的绝大多数That dynamic, for good and bad, played out again on Monday with the release of the Services PMI® for November, which exceeded analysts’ expectations with a composite index reading of 56.5 percent. While that figure indicated strong growth and boosted hopes that services could carry a contracting manufacturing sector and help stave off a recession, the data was too positive for some financial markets, which continue to have interest-rate unease.。

周一，随着11月服务业PMI®的发布，无论好坏，这一动态都再次显现出来，综合指数为56.5%，超出了分析师的预期尽管这一数字表明了强劲的增长，并提振了人们对服务业能够带动收缩的制造业并帮助避免经济衰退的希望，但这一数据对一些金融市场来说过于乐观，因为这些市场仍然存在利率不安。

ISM services at 56.5 compared to expectations of 53.3ISM服务为56.5，预期为53.3Did Powell mini-pivot too early?

鲍威尔迷你转向太早了吗？— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) December 5, 2022-AndreasStenoLarsen（@AndreasSteno）2022年12月5日

While business activity and employment likely got a holiday season boost, the numbers show steady performance, Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® Services Business Survey Committee, told a conference call of reporters on Monday. “The consistency we’ve seen has been extremely strong,” he said.

供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management®Services）商业调查委员会主席安东尼·尼维斯（Anthony Nieves）周一在记者电话会议上表示，尽管商业活动和就业可能在假日季节得到了提振，但数据显示出稳定的表现。

“我们看到的一致性非常强，”他说This year, the Services PMI® numbers have not been as eye-popping as in 2021, when the coronavirus pandemic recovery helped the composite index reach a record high five times. But Nieves believes that the 12-month average of 57.2 percent indicates a more normal — and, most importantly, sustainable — level of growth.

今年，服务业PMI®数据并没有像2021那样令人瞠目结舌，当时冠状病毒大流行的复苏帮助综合指数五次创下历史新高但Nieves认为，12个月的平均增长率为57.2%，这表明经济增长更为正常，最重要的是可持续。

“The services sector is in a good place, and I expect to know when the Semiannual Economic Forecast comes out (on December 15),” Nieves said. “I would expect after the holiday season and into the first quarter of 2023, there will be some pullback, but this is sustainable. It’s hard to maintain growth when the PMI® number is in the 60s, but I think we can continue to see the current level.”

Nieves表示：“服务业形势良好，我预计将于12月15日公布《半年度经济预测》”“我预计，在假期结束后，进入2023年第一季度，会出现一些回调，但这是可持续的当PMI®数据处于60年代时，很难保持增长，但我认为我们可以继续看到目前的水平。

”United States ISM services index to 56.5 in November, from 54.4.美国11月ISM服务指数从54.4升至56.5Not bad, especially the business activity index to 64.7, from 55.7.。

不错，尤其是商业活动指数从55.7升至64.7Still consistent with weakening growth.仍与增长疲软保持一致— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) December 5, 2022。

-丹尼尔·拉卡尔（@dlacalle_IA）2022年12月5日In November, the Business Activity Index registered 64.7 percent, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to October, and the Employment Index returned to expansion territory at 51.5 percent.

11月份，商业活动指数为64.7%，比10月份上升了9个百分点，就业指数恢复到51.5%Nagging issues remain prices, lead times and inventories, where services companies are not getting as much relief as their manufacturing counterparts. The Prices Index remained elevated at 70 percent, and the Supplier Deliveries Index (53.8 percent) continued to indicate longer lead times. Those dynamics could be making buyers hesitant and complicating inventory management: The Inventories Index (47.9 percent) and Inventory Sentiment (44.2 percent) continued to suggest struggles in November.。

棘手的问题仍然是价格、交货期和库存，服务业公司并没有像制造业同行那样得到缓解价格指数保持在70%的水平，供应商交货指数（53.8%）继续显示交货期更长这些动态可能会让买家犹豫不决，并使库存管理变得复杂：库存指数（47.9%）和库存情绪（44.2%）继续显示11月的困境。

On Bloomberg TV on Monday, Nieves said that while the employment situation is encouraging, inflation is the most concerning dynamic. Noting the sector’s sizeable share of U.S. GDP, he said, “When we look at the variables that comprise (the likelihood of) a recessionary period, we still have strength in the employment numbers — we know that from not only this report, but the (federal) nonfarm jobs report that came out on Friday.

周一在彭博电视台上，尼维斯表示，尽管就业形势令人鼓舞，但通货膨胀是最令人担忧的动态他指出，该行业在美国GDP中所占份额相当大，“当我们考虑构成衰退期（可能性）的变量时，我们的就业数据仍然强劲——我们不仅从这份报告中了解到这一点，而且从周五发布的（联邦）非农就业报告中也了解到了这一点。

Nieves continued, “The variable we are looking at now is inflation. Prices are still very high, and the 0.7-percentage point decrease (in the Prices Index in November) was driven mostly by a reduction in fuel prices. Overall, we’re still seeing high commodity prices. Until those come down, inflation not going to fall any time soon.”

Nieves继续说道，“我们现在关注的变量是通货膨胀物价仍然很高，（11月物价指数）下降0.7%的主要原因是燃料价格下降总体而言，我们仍然看到大宗商品价格居高不下在这些价格降下来之前，通货膨胀不会很快下降。

”With tapering inflation the Fed’s primary concern, Nieves added, investors’ interest-rate anxiety will likely continue, though the next increase could be smaller than previous hikes.

Nieves补充道，随着美联储主要关注的通胀率逐渐降低，投资者的利率焦虑可能会继续下去，尽管下一次加息可能会比之前的加息幅度小The Report On Business® roundup:商业报告®综述：。

Bloomberg: U.S. Services Gauge Rises Unexpectedly on Business Activity Surge. “ISM’s measure of services employment also improved while a gauge of new orders eased to the lowest since May. The slowdown in bookings may indicate that activity could ease in coming months as some Americans tighten their belts amid still-high inflation and rising borrowing costs. The prices-paid index edged down but remains elevated at 70 (percent), well above pre-pandemic levels and suggesting inflation may be slow to dissipate.”

彭博社：商业活动激增，美国服务业指数意外上涨ISM的服务业就业指标也有所改善，新订单指数降至5月以来的最低水平预订量的放缓可能表明，随着一些美国人在高通胀和借贷成本上升的情况下勒紧裤腰带，未来几个月的活动可能会有所缓解。

物价指数略有下降，但仍保持在70（%），远高于大流行前的水平，表明通胀可能会缓慢消散”Right, so the empirical question is what is the better forecaster of recession? The services PMI is more volatile and noisier (red dots), while the non-man ISM is smoother (solid red) and tracks US GDP data better, so my money is on the ISM on this one... pic.twitter.com/1GFKhQ9oev

是的，所以经验问题是什么是更好的衰退预测者？服务业PMI波动更大，噪音更大（红色圆点），而非人工ISM更平滑（红色实线），更好地跟踪美国GDP数据，所以我的钱在ISM上…pic.twitter.com/1GFKhQ9oev

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) December 5, 2022-罗宾·布鲁克斯（@Robin Brooks IIF）2022年12月5日Financial Times: Strong Business Activity Boosts U.S. Services Sector Growth. “Demand for services increased in November as business activity increased in all industries except for finance and insurance. Employment grew after contracting in October as staffing levels improved during the holiday season. Supply chain constraints are also improving and some survey respondents have noted that there are reduced production and transit times.”

《金融时报》：强劲的商业活动推动了美国服务业的增长“11月，服务需求增加，除金融和保险业外，所有行业的商业活动都有所增加10月，随着假期期间人员配置水平的提高，就业率在收缩后有所增长供应链约束也在改善，一些调查受访者指出，生产和运输时间有所减少。

”Mace News: Service Sector Growth Pace Picks Up on Holiday Season, New Fiscal Year Demand. “Nieves told reporters that the uptick in November was “not so surprising” and that the recent performance of the services sector is “consistent” with his forecast that the main index will rise or fall slightly or move sideways. He expects the index to be solid in December and slip back in January.”

梅斯新闻：服务业增长步伐在假日季节加快，新财年需求增加Nieves告诉记者，11月的上涨“并不令人惊讶”，服务业的近期表现与他预测的主要指数将小幅上涨或下跌或横移的预测“一致”他预计该指数将在12月保持稳定，并在1月回落。

”MarketWatch: The U.S. Economy is Still Growing, Report Finds, Even as Warning Signs Mount. “The huge service segment of the economy has held up better than the industrial side. Americans have shifted spending to services such as travel and recreation and away from buying goods like new cars and computers. Warning signs are evident, though. Companies have gotten more careful about hiring and investment, and consumers aren’t spending as much as they were earlier in the year.”

市场观察：报告发现，尽管警告信号越来越多，美国经济仍在增长“经济中庞大的服务业部门比工业部门表现得更好美国人已经将支出转向旅游和娱乐等服务业，而不再购买新车和电脑等商品不过，警告信号很明显公司在招聘和投资方面更加谨慎，消费者的支出也没有今年早些时候那么多。

”The average of ISM Manufacturing + ISM Services increased slightly in November.11月ISM制造业+ISM服务业的平均值略有增长。

The economy continues to slow, has fallen below trend, but is not yet recessionary. pic.twitter.com/HReutZacRJ

经济继续放缓，已低于趋势，但尚未衰退pic.twitter.com/HReutZacRJ— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) December 5, 2022-埃里克·巴斯马吉安（@EPB搜索）2022年12月5日。

Reuters: U.S. Service Sector Activity Picks up in November. “Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the (Services PMI®) slipping to 53.1 (percent). The acceleration in services industry activity confirms that spending is shifting away from goods and that the inflation baton has been handed over to services, indicating that overall price pressures in the economy could take a while to subside.”

路透社：美国服务业活动11月回升“接受路透社调查的经济学家预测，（服务业PMI®）将下滑至53.1（%）服务业活动的加速证实，消费正在从商品转向，通胀指挥棒已经交给服务业，这表明经济中的总体价格压力可能需要一段时间才能缓解。

”The Wall Street Journal: Services Come With a Smile, but the Economy Could Still Be Frowning. “The heady appetite for goods set off by the pandemic has begun to ease, and more Americans are re-engaging with services such as travel — in part because high goods inflation pushes the trade-off between spending money on goods and spending money on services in services’ direction. Moreover, U.S. manufacturers are far more exposed to the global economy than services businesses are, so the combination of weakness overseas and a strong dollar is hurting them more.”

《华尔街日报》：服务业面带微笑，但经济可能仍在萎缩“疫情引发的对商品的狂热需求已经开始缓解，越来越多的美国人重新参与旅游等服务业，部分原因是高商品通胀推动了商品支出和服务支出之间的权衡，从而推动了服务业的发展。

此外，美国制造商比服务业更容易受到全球经济的影响，因此海外疲软和美元强势的组合对他们的伤害更大”In case you missed last week’s Report On Business® Roundup on the release of the November Manufacturing PMI®, you can read it here. The Hospital PMI® will be released on Wednesday. For the most up-to-date content on the three indexes under the ISM® Report On Business® umbrella, use #ISMPMI on Twitter.

如果您错过了上周发布的11月制造业PMI®商业报告（Report On Business®Roundup），您可以在这里阅读医院PMI®将于周三发布有关ISM®Report on Business®伞下三个指数的最新内容，请在Twitter上使用#ISMPMI。

About the Author关于作者Dan Zeiger is Senior Copy Editor/Writer for Inside Supply Management® magazine, covering topics, trends and issues relating to supply chain management.

Dan Zeiger是Inside Supply Management®杂志的高级文案编辑/撰稿人，涵盖与供应链管理相关的主题、趋势和问题。